The Bank of England is widely expected to deliver another 25bps rate hike at its upcoming meeting. Although, in light of recent voting splits (Figure 1.) within the MPC, this will be key to the initial market reaction for GBP. A reminder that last month, BoE’s Cunliffe had been the sole dissenter, voting to keep the Bank rate unchanged. While my base case is for another 8-1 vote split. There is an equal risk of a 7-2 vote with Silvana Tenreyro joining BoE’s Cunliffe as is there with a three-way vote split, in which a rate setter votes for a 50bps hike.
