Is a vaccine the real risk to the market?
Stocks are within 1% to 2% of their historic highs because of the belief that stimulus of some form is coming, the election will not devolve into chaos, and an effective vaccine will be available in early 2021.
Five vaccines — from Moderna, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and Novavax — are in or beginning Phase 3 trials. The Food and Drug Administration has set a bar of at least 50% efficacy for a vaccine.