According to a key measure of activity (the purchasing manager’s index), the economy is not contracting, but is expanding, at a decent whack too.
It may be too early to conclude that the UK will avoid a recession – but nor is it a crazy idea either.
Then there is the public finance data, which suggests both that households and businesses are doing a bit better than expected (they’re paying more in taxes) and that the deficit this year might not be quite as high as the Office for Budget Responsibility had hoped.
