Today, we’re thrilled to sit down with Priya Jaiswal, a distinguished expert in banking, business, and finance, whose deep knowledge of market analysis and international trade trends offers invaluable insights into North American economic relations. With the upcoming 2026 review of the USMCA trade agreement and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent visit to Mexico, Priya is here to unpack the strategic moves, bilateral ties, and looming challenges in the region. Our conversation dives into the motivations behind Carney’s trip, the evolving trade dynamics between Canada and Mexico, and how both nations are navigating their relationship with the U.S. amid political tensions and tariff threats.
What inspired Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to make this trip to Mexico right now, and what are the key objectives he’s aiming to achieve during his two-day visit?
I think Carney’s visit is incredibly timely, given the 2026 USMCA review on the horizon. His main goal is to strengthen ties with Mexico and diversify Canada’s trade portfolio, especially as both countries rely heavily on the U.S. market. This trip is about building a united front—discussing shared concerns and aligning strategies ahead of potential challenges with the U.S. administration. It’s also a chance to mend past frictions and signal a renewed commitment to partnership with Mexico.
How would you describe the current trade relationship between Canada and Mexico, and why does it carry such weight in the broader North American context?
The trade relationship between Canada and Mexico is robust and often underappreciated. Mexico is Canada’s third-largest trading partner, and Canada ranks high for Mexico as well. What’s striking is that Canada trades more with Mexico than with the entire European Union, which speaks to the depth of this connection. Both nations are deeply integrated into the North American economy, but with over 75% of Canada’s exports and 80% of Mexico’s going to the U.S., their bilateral trade acts as a critical buffer and a way to balance that dependency.
With the USMCA review approaching, how are Canada and Mexico positioning themselves in relation to the U.S., particularly under the current political climate?
There’s a palpable sense of unease in both Canada and Mexico about the U.S. administration’s approach, especially with President Trump’s rhetoric and policies like sweeping tariff threats. Both countries share concerns over how the review might unfold, and there’s a mutual interest in preserving the free trade pact’s benefits. Trump’s comments, like linking Canada to Mexico on issues such as fentanyl smuggling, have added strain, making this a moment for Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to align their messaging and prepare for tough negotiations.
There’s a history of tension between Canada and Mexico, especially with comments from Canadian provincial leaders last year. Can you walk us through what happened and how it’s being addressed?
Last year, some Canadian provincial premiers suggested excluding Mexico from a potential new trade deal with the U.S., which understandably upset Mexican officials. It was seen as dismissive and sparked concern about Canada’s commitment to a trilateral framework. Carney has since worked to repair this rift, emphasizing collaboration through gestures like inviting President Sheinbaum to the G7 summit in Alberta and ensuring high-level ministerial meetings. These steps show an intent to rebuild trust and prioritize a unified approach.
Speaking of that G7 invitation, how significant is Carney’s outreach to President Sheinbaum, and what does it signal about Canada’s view of Mexico as a partner?
Inviting President Sheinbaum to the G7 summit was a powerful diplomatic move. It’s a recognition of Mexico’s growing importance on the global stage and a clear message that Canada values this relationship. Coupled with sending both the foreign and finance ministers to meet her, it demonstrates a proactive effort to deepen ties at the highest levels. I believe this reflects a shift—Canada is increasingly seeing Mexico not just as a trade partner, but as a strategic ally in navigating North American and global challenges.
Both leaders appear to be focusing on a joint strategy to deal with the U.S. during the USMCA renegotiation. Can you elaborate on what this ‘tag-teaming’ approach might look like?
The idea of ‘tag-teaming,’ as some experts have called it, is about Canada and Mexico presenting a united front in negotiations with the U.S. Rather than competing for separate deals, they’re exploring ways to coordinate their priorities and push back against unfavorable terms together. This could mean joint working groups or aligned positions on key issues like tariffs or exemptions. The logic is simple: a combined voice carries more weight, especially when dealing with an unpredictable administration, though aligning their interests won’t be without hurdles given their distinct economic needs.
Looking ahead to the 2026 USMCA review and ongoing trade tensions, what is your forecast for how Canada and Mexico will fare in maintaining their economic partnership with each other and the U.S.?
I’m cautiously optimistic about Canada and Mexico’s ability to strengthen their bilateral trade ties, as both recognize the value of diversifying away from U.S. dependency. However, the USMCA review will be a crucible. If they can sustain this collaborative spirit and effectively counterbalance U.S. pressures—whether through joint negotiations or leveraging exemptions—they could emerge with a more resilient agreement. The wildcard remains U.S. policy; tariffs like the 50% on steel and aluminum are already biting, and more could come. Their success will hinge on adaptability and how well they anticipate and respond to political shifts south of the border.
