A quiet surge that set the tone
Discounts did not whisper this Thanksgiving—they rang the bell early, with U.S. online sales tracking up about 6% to an expected $8.6 billion by day’s end, including $2.6 billion already booked by 2 p.m. ET, up 5.8% from the same stretch last year. Midday global spend reached $13.1 billion and pointed toward roughly $36 billion worldwide before midnight. The uptick looked modest in isolation, yet the curve was telling: shoppers were not just browsing; they were converting when the price tag said “now.”
That rhythm carried a deeper question into the long weekend: were aggressive markdowns pulling demand forward from Black Friday, or priming a larger total by lowering the psychological barrier to buy? Early signs suggested a bit of both. Carts got fatter in deal-centric categories even as some discretionary lines stayed quiet, hinting at a consumer who traded hesitation for value when the discount hit a clear threshold.
Why the spike mattered beyond one day
The stakes were not abstract. For many retailers, roughly one-third of annual sales and profits still ride on November and December, and this season opened with soft consumer sentiment, rising costs tied to tariffs, and little room for error on pricing. Shoppers arrived with budgets under strain, making value the filter and discount depth the decider.
Retailers, in turn, balanced volume and margin with unusual precision. The season’s growth arc looked slower but still positive: Salesforce projected U.S. online sales from November 1 to December 31 would grow 2.1% to about $288 billion, compared with last year’s 4% gain to $282 billion. That deceleration framed the Thanksgiving bump as more than a blip; it was a test of whether promotion-first playbooks could still unlock demand without eroding profitability beyond repair.
How promotions rewired demand
Price led, and shoppers followed. Mastercard and other trackers highlighted promotions as the primary lever sustaining growth, with the best lift coming where discounts were deep, time-boxed, and clearly signposted. Value perception outweighed caution when the offer felt urgent and fair, especially on items with known reference prices.
The product mix amplified the effect. Electronics responded first, as steep cuts on headphones, gaming consoles, tablets, and smart-home hubs nudged undecided buyers over the line. Apparel brands, including chains such as Gap and Abercrombie, signaled optimism with tiered offers that protected margins on newness while moving seasonal basics. Bundles, gift-with-purchase, and free-shipping thresholds lifted average order values without turning the entire store into a clearance rack.
Calendar timing did the rest. Black Friday remained the online peak, with Salesforce pointing to a potential $78 billion globally and about $18 billion in the U.S. Growth continued to concentrate around marquee deal days, where traffic and conversion stacked on top of each other and every operational flaw got exposed. In that environment, seconds shaved from page load times and checkout steps removed could mean millions in recovered revenue.
What the real-time readout revealed
The Thanksgiving readout validated a blunt reality: aggressive markdowns still worked in a cautious economy, especially when coupled with crisp merchandising. Electronics discounts did more than shift choice within a category; they expanded baskets with add-ons—controllers, cases, and cables—that rode along with headline items. In apparel, curated bundles and graduated discounts nudged shoppers up the ladder without feeling like a maze.
Experts described promotions as both offense and defense: a way to capture share while also neutralizing tariff-driven cost pressure before it hit shelf prices. That dual role helped explain why growth persisted even as it moderated. The consensus coalesced around a simple thesis: disciplined discounting could extend momentum through the weekend, provided retailers resisted the temptation to go all-in too early and burn the Black Friday halo.
Playing the next move as Black Friday nears
The window between Thanksgiving dinner and midnight remained a strategic hinge. Retailers that staggered offers—saving a few headline deals for Friday while seeding flash promotions—kept attention high without collapsing margins. Clear discount ladders that crescendoed into Black Friday gave shoppers a reason to return, while restrained floor pricing protected the final push.
Execution mattered as much as price. Leading with hero SKUs in electronics and apparel, ensuring depth on doorbusters, and pairing accessories with core items helped raise basket size. On-site, surfacing real-time inventory, credible delivery windows, and flexible payments such as BNPL reduced friction. Off-site, triggered emails and SMS on price drops, lightweight retargeting of Thanksgiving browsers, and short early-access windows for loyalists created gentle urgency without overwhelming the feed.
The season’s next turn
By night’s end, the message had been clear: discounts set the pace, shoppers answered, and the real contest shifted to Black Friday’s broader stage. The actionable playbook favored precision—track contribution margin by promo and channel, cap unprofitable ad auctions, and watch elasticity in real time to dial offers up or down. Retailers that treated promotions as instruments rather than blunt tools tended to convert demand without giving away the store.
What came next depended on execution across the weekend. With value-conscious shoppers guiding the market and cost pressures still present, the path to growth ran through well-timed offers, resilient operations, and smart measurement. The opportunity was there, and the winners had already turned Thanksgiving’s surge into momentum that carried through the peak.
