After a prolonged period of intense competition that heavily favored sellers, Calgary’s real estate landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, signaling a potential return to equilibrium. The frenetic pace that defined the market for several years has given way to a more measured environment, a shift that began to take shape during the market softening of 2025. Last year saw a notable decline in home sales across all property types, with apartment sales decreasing by 28%, row homes by 17%, and both semi-detached and detached homes experiencing an 8% drop. This downturn set the stage for the current stabilization, where the dynamics between supply and demand are being redrawn. Projections from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) suggest that 2026 will be a pivotal year, marking a transition from a seller’s stronghold to a more balanced market. This change offers a new set of opportunities and challenges for homebuyers, sellers, and renters alike as the city navigates this new chapter in its housing story.
A Shifting Landscape for Buyers and Sellers
The Impact of Rising Inventory
A key driver behind the market’s rebalancing was the substantial increase in housing supply throughout 2025. Inventory levels for most property categories surged by an impressive 50% to 70%, flooding the market with options that had been scarce in previous years. This surge in availability has fundamentally altered the home-buying experience, creating more favorable conditions for purchasers who now have a wider selection and increased bargaining power. The improved affordability is already being felt, with some residents expressing surprise at finding detached houses listed for $500,000—a price point that seemed unattainable just a short time ago. Interestingly, this trend did not extend to all segments; row home inventory was a notable exception, plummeting by a staggering 87%. However, for the majority of the market, the increased supply is a welcome development, alleviating some of the pressure that had driven prices to record highs and offering a clearer path to homeownership for many Calgarians.
Diverging Paths for Property Types
Looking ahead, CREB forecasts suggest that the market will not move in a single, uniform direction. Instead, different property types are expected to follow divergent price trajectories, largely influenced by shifting migration patterns into Alberta. A reduction in new arrivals is anticipated to place downward pressure on prices for higher-density housing. Consequently, row and apartment-style homes are likely to see modest price declines as demand in this sector softens. In contrast, the market for single-family homes is projected to show more resilience. Both semi-detached and detached properties are forecast to experience small price increases, indicating sustained demand for more spacious living arrangements. On the construction front, housing starts are expected to slow in 2026 to better align with the new demand reality. However, the market will still need to absorb the substantial pipeline of new homes initiated during the construction boom of 2025, a factor that will continue to bolster overall supply for some time.
Broader Market Implications
The Rental Market Response
The cooling trend is not confined to the sales market; it is also creating a more favorable environment for tenants. The rental sector is poised for a significant shift, driven by a combination of new supply and moderating demand. Currently, there are over 11,800 purpose-built rental units under construction across the city. As these units are completed and come online, they will substantially increase the available rental stock. This influx of new inventory, coupled with the anticipated lower migration levels, is expected to keep vacancy rates elevated. In turn, this heightened competition among landlords is likely to keep rental rates stable or even cause them to decrease, giving tenants more negotiating power and a wider array of affordable options. This development provides much-needed relief for renters who have faced a tight and expensive market in recent years and contributes to the overall rebalancing of the city’s housing ecosystem.
A Strategic Outlook for Market Participants
The transition toward a more balanced market necessitates a recalibration of strategies for all participants. While conditions have clearly shifted in favor of buyers, experts caution that the environment is not yet a full-fledged buyer’s market. The advice from industry professionals is clear: prospective buyers who identify a property that meets their needs and budget should act promptly rather than waiting for further price drops that may not materialize. For sellers, this new reality requires a shift in expectations regarding pricing and timelines. The days of rapid, multiple-offer sales have given way to a more deliberate pace, where accurate pricing and effective marketing are paramount. Ultimately, the market’s stabilization represents a move toward a more sustainable and predictable cycle, ending a period of intense volatility and setting a new foundation for the city’s real estate future.
